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14:306 scenarios for Novorossia
Western analysts of all stripes offer their own solutions to the crisis
in Ukraine. The main problem with most of these recommendations is that
the lion's share comes from the idea of "save the face" of one or
another subject of the conflict.|
Even to the point that during the talks in Minsk President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko all his public speech was built on the necessity of this "saving face" - apparently, his counselors, having read Western analysts also believe that Vladimir Putin is now the objective is solely to that.
These analysts don't want to accept that Russia is now at stake are issues far more important than "saving face"than credibility in the eyes of the rest of the world than the image. The question is, will Russia their living space will buffer zone on its border will remain possible in the future to independently build a national security system will ultimately yourself! It is in the case of Syria, it was possible to talk about will face Putin, Lavrov, allowing a rocket attack on the forces of Assad. And even if in this case, Moscow has put the most diplomatic and economic efforts to prevent unfavorable scenario, there is no doubt that in the case of Ukraine, it is not limited only to diplomacy.
Let's try to analyze the main possible scenarios out of the crisis, based upon the false premise of "saving face", and based on the understanding of how the solution of this problem is important for the future of the Russian Federation and the former Soviet Union.
So, I would highlight the following conditional scenarios (of course with the weight of their variations):
1. The preservation of the "Cathedral" of Ukraine (without the Crimea, of course).
2. Bosnian scenario.
3. Transnistrian scenario.
4. Abkhaz script.
5. Czechoslovak scenario.
6. Crimean scenario.
A brief look at all these possible scenarios, again stressing that each of them has many different variations.
"The Cathedral" Ukraine
At the option of maintaining Novorossia and Donetsk in Ukraine, of course, will insist in Kiev, and in the West (even decided by the brackets the question of Crimea). In this scenario, you can argue about whether the unitary Ukraine and Donbas will be granted a certain autonomy. Most Western experts, without a moment's hesitation, say that the Kremlin will be satisfied with Autonomous status of Donbass or Federal system of Ukraine, which will protect the rights of the Russian population of Novorossia and will be a kind of safeguard against the entry of Ukraine into NATO.
That's two Supreme leader of Germany talk about "reasonable federalization of Ukraine". Moreover, Merkel, taking into account the fact that in the environment of Kyiv "La Boheme", the word "federalization" has become a dirty, invited to speak about "decentralization in the German sample (as if following the pattern of the Federal Republic of Germany is not the federalization!). Poroshenko in his program also something they half-heartedly promised about "self-government regions" and "protection of the Russian language", although it is not explained how to do this in practice.
And this is the main Achilles ' heel of all experts, offering a similar solution to the conflict. First, they do not talk about how now to convince the citizens of Donetsk and Luhansk that they must live in the state who bombed them for several months, and still consider it his own. Secondly, none of them thought to what guarantees can you give Kiev or West residents Novorossia if they consent to this option.
We see that all memorials, promises, contracts, agreements violated the current Kyiv authorities almost immediately after their announcement, no matter who made them guarantor (remember, as the February agreement with Yanukovych were trampled literally the next day). Accordingly, we can assume that all these "guarantees"that you will receive the Donbass, will be broken immediately after the militias disarm.
In any case maintain the single Ukraine, whatever autonomy nor received the new Russia, in these regions will be "Federal" army, "Federal" power structures, "Federal" law enforcement agencies, which are now officially included militants attacked from the Right sector". So you can imagine what "justice" they will begin to implement in the "Autonomous" regions! And no Merkel, as we understand it, will not even whimper when in the Russian regions will begin (or rather continue) real ethnic cleansing.
You have to also understand that dilapidated Donbass will not be virtually no chance to restore its economy in the framework of the "Cathedral" of Ukraine. For all the years of independence Ukraine is not actually built in these regions. And after the wave of hatred and Donbas Donetsk, which raised in Kiev, will not build and continue.
For example, the notorious "radical Menshevik" Lyashko already stated that after the "liberation" should be left the region in ruins - in the edification of posterity. What this approach can count nominally or actually offline Donbass, which will be forced to direct taxes on the content of Kiev, not to restore its infrastructure?
Well, the most important thing. It is enough to simulate this scenario, to understand that he completely ignores the interests of Russia. What is it meaning that it will include the number of signatories and "guarantors" of the future Novorossiysk, autonomy and neutrality of Ukraine? After five years on it will chuckle exactly the same as laughing at Yeltsin's Russia, when, contrary to all agreements, began a rapid expansion of NATO to the East.
Any agreement not crossed out, the wave of Russophobia, which raised euromayday and Kiev current "elite". On the borders with Russia appears not just unfriendly, and hostile state. And the more he economic potential, the greater threat to Russian security, it will create. Donetsk and Lugansk region is about 25% of exports and 20% of the production capacity of Ukraine (of course, these data refer to the pre-war period). What would Russia agree on the saving power of the state, which openly by the mouth of his highest officials threatens the very existence of Russia and its territorial integrity (do not forget about the promise of the Minister of defence of Ukraine to hold the Ukrainian military parade in Sevastopol)?
Those who in Russia urge to shrug from the problems of Novorossiya, leaving her at the mercy of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis, don't understand that, Pereverzev Donbass, completing the ethnic cleansing that began on 2 may in Odessa, prowazeki, already strong, battle-hardened, received armored vehicles and financing will certainly sabotage in the Crimea, and then in the rest of Russia (they, in fact, do not hide their ultimate goals). And what kind of agreements with Ukraine, where such people are officially included in the punitive system, may enter into Moscow? How "Autonomous" status of Donbass will protect Russia from terrorist threats related to the strengthening of state neighbor?
Personally I don't see compliance mechanism such "guarantees" or Donbass, neither Russia in case of preservation of the "uniform" of Ukraine. In any case, none of the many experts offering such a scenario, this mechanism even contour is not described.
Some observers have increasingly begun to write about the possibility of maintaining formal "uniform" of Ukraine with the presence of de facto independent of Donbass. This idea, in particular, expressed on the pages of the newspaper "The Daily Telegraph" famous British diplomat Charles Crawford, in his time played a role in the development of management models Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The article with the characteristic title "Ukrainians - losers in the game of coward" Briton writes: "the Agreement, which, apparently, will satisfy Russia, is to bonisoli Ukraine... Ukrainian territorial integrity is preserved on paper, but some regions receive some sort of autonomy granted to the Republic of Serbia, a Serbian body within Bosnia and Herzegovina. These areas can be combined in the Russian economic and political space - as Moscow will decide, through them, the Kremlin would be able to impose an effective veto on strategic choices made in Kiev: Ukraine cannot join NATO, or more closely to converge with the European Union, if this option will not be closed even in theoretical terms. Such an outcome might look attractive to many European capitals, if pragmatically assume that this is the best of the available options".
The author of these words recognizes that this may be perceived painfully Kiev elites. And he was and is perceived is one of the most active organizers of euromayday Vitaly Portnikov hurried to publish the column "Putin's trap", warning against the Bosnian scenario (the funny thing is that as a negative example, address the question of European integration" brings exactly Bosnia under official management of the European Union, and as a positive - preserving the independence of Serbia).
I think in the case of a successful attack Novorossiysk militias West will eventually bow down to this option as the lesser of two evils. Under Western pressure on him can finally go and Kiev, if it realizes that it is the only way to keep this area at least formally, the single state (of course, while hoping in the future to cancel the real autonomy of Donbass).
It can give new Russia? She may actually have much more autonomy and the protection of linguistic rights. But it is also unlikely to be able to count on a speedy restoration of the edge of the ruins.
In this scenario, Russia is indeed at a certain time will get more control over Ukraine, but will not solve problems of security of our own borders, paired with the de facto Autonomous Novorossiia.
The Transnistrian script
We are talking about the actual independence of the DND and LNR in the absence of official recognition of this independence from the side and Kiev, and West, and Russia. In fact, it will boil down to the freezing of the conflict with a high probability of repetition (as it was in 2008 in South Ossetia).
This script Kiev experts loved to scare the citizens of Donetsk on the stage of the embryo of the conflict, when there were exploding bombs. Now to scare plight of Transnistria" Donbass difficult - many would have preferred such a fate, war, and destruction.
In the end, this script can be called and not the Transnistrian and, say, Taiwan! Manages the same for several decades to exist and thrive de facto state, legally recognized only the Islands of Oceania. The question here in the actual recognition of and cooperation with Russia, and in the future - with a slightly calmed down Ukraine, which, like the current of Moldova, will decide that it is better to build equal relations with the breakaway region, hoping to lure him back.
The problem will be that, with appropriate blockade by the EU almost all enterprises of the new Russia will lose export market that can meet active resistance from the local oligarchs, and in the future may lead to the decline of the steel and engineering industries of the unrecognized Republic of republics?). However, due to cooperation with Russia, this problem can be reduced (not completely solve), redirecting part of the products of these enterprises in the post-Soviet space and in the developing countries of Asia and Africa.
In this scenario, Russia firmly establish this territory in the zone of its influence, will protect the local population from ethnic cleansing and will be able to maneuver in relations with Europe and Ukraine the threat of a possible official recognition of the new Russia. In the end, if weak, defragmented the Yeltsin of Russia has enough strength in order to ensure such an outcome in Transnistria, now much stronger RF can do it with less problems. It is true, then this scenario was provided by the forces of the 14th army, legally present in the territory of Transnistria. Now the official entry of such contingent upon the development of the Transnistrian scenario is not realistic.
The problem of entering the Russian peacekeepers is solved by the official Moscow's recognition of the new Russia under the scenario of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008. Again if someone does not like the analogy of the Caucasus, can this script be called Cyprus. In the end, Northern Cyprus is quite enough recognition from only one Turkey. And it does not interfere with the Cyprus to join the EU and Turkey to remain a candidate for EU membership and an active member of NATO.
When this happens, the conflict again frozen, new Russia gets more safeguards in case of occurrence of any "Ukrainian Saakashvili". And Russia has full control over the region and a lot of headaches in relations with the West (she, however, is not much larger than reunification with the Crimea).
Citizens of the new Russia in both these scenarios will be forced to obtain citizenship of the neighboring States and moving across the border to have a problem inherent in all unrecognized or "nadopasana" States. But as we see for example that Transnistria or Northern Cyprus, such problems over the years are solved.
Script amicable divorce Ukraine and Novorossia for example divorce of Czechoslovakia cannot be discounted. In fact from the time it started euromayday, Western analysts often discussed this scenario and even called for him.
The former Czech President Vaclav Klaus was even offered their mediation services for the implementation of this plan. But Kiev angrily rejected them. Except it seems to be smart now, after so much blood that he shed and Ukraine, and the new Russia?
Back in February, the American journalist David Mixner, a former adviser to bill Clinton, wrote an article titled "Divide Ukraine now, before it's too late." He, like some other analysts have called for a peaceful section of Ukraine until killed thousands of people. Many of the warning seemed too apocalyptic. Though now we see that the option of a peaceful divorce, perhaps, would obviate the blood mass of civilians and wanton destruction.
Of course, the analogy with the divorce of Czechoslovakia here is lame (because of the peaceful divorce has already failed). Well, you can then call this script or Croatian Sudanese, if you want examples, when the world community is in General agreement agreed to a partition of the state mired in a civil war, it was enough for the last decade.
In this scenario, the new Russia, of course, still can not do without Russia, but, using its powerful industrial potential, would be able to recover faster from the ashes and normal to cooperate with all the neighbors, simultaneously performing the role of a buffer between Russia and unfriendly Ukraine.
A few weeks ago Kiev elite vehemently rejected such a scenario as "defeatist" and "anti-Ukrainian" (is that the writer Yuri Andrukhovych before Donetsk-Ukrainian war for the sake of shocking allowed the Department of Donbass). When Donetsk militia began a massive counter-attack, opening a second front under Mariupol, in Kiev in the panic became increasingly voices urging him to abandon the Donbass, in order to avoid great number of victims.
Favorite in Kiev environment, "American political scientist Alexander Motyl even found a formula in which the surrender of Donbass could be like... victory of Ukraine. In Foreign Affairs magazine, he wrote an article with the characteristic title "Putin's trap" (they seem to Portnikov agreed), in which he stated "tricky" course, saying, give destroyed by the Ukrainian Donbass Putin - that it will not digest and will go bankrupt! And Ukraine will begin their "success story" in the framework of the European Union! It is clear that the formula was invented only in order to justify the defeat. But the fact that these formulas are already generated in the environment of the Ukrainian experts revealing! This means that the option of divorce "with the consent of all the parties" can and should be considered.
The script attach the new Russia to the Russian Federation, following the example of the Crimea, of course, would be perceived by many residents of the region "with a Bang". In such a scenario for the long-suffering of Donbass was filmed would be lots of problems associated with the management of the region, its speedy recovery, security, establishment of normal life. Moreover, problems with the reintegration of Donbass would be less than with the Crimea, separated from mainland Russia by sea.
While we understand that neither the West nor Ukraine is not going to recognition and this "annexation". This means that Russia will have more problems - as in relations with the West, and the financing of the destroyed region.
Because this scenario seems unlikely. Although you must admit, in the beginning of this year, few could believe that already in the spring of Crimea will become part of Russia. The current rapidly developing events demonstrate that nothing is impossible.
In any case, such a scenario cannot be discounted - Russia can always keep it in mind to strengthen its position in the auction and with Europe, and with the same hostile Ukraine.
What to do?
Having looked through all these scenarios, you can now answer the question "What should Russia do?" Which of these options should support Moscow? The answer depends largely on the adequacy of the actions of Kiev and the West. We understand that in December the best of possible achievable goals Moscow seemed federalization of Ukraine with the greatest possible autonomy of Crimea and the new Russia. To build a closer integration of Russia with these regions of Ukraine would take decades.
But any revolution, civil war and anarchy in the state, which is called "failed state" (and I think now even my Ukrainian colleagues do not be offended by such a definition, as they did a year ago), allow neighbors to much more powerful maneuver. Now Russia can demand a referendum on self-determination of regions of Ukraine not only in the Donbass region, but also within the whole of the new Russia. I doubt that the current war and Holocaust in Ukraine at all possible fair elections and referenda, but nevertheless, this possibility cannot be discounted.
Russia and the West can choose between the above scenarios, and strengthening its bargaining position, which will be directly dependent on the military successes of new militia. The stronger the success - the more you will be able to negotiate themselves novarossi. While Moscow may deter the West from the more aggressive actions "threat" repetition of the Crimean script.
Speaking about the fate of the new Russia it is impossible to forget about the threat of occurrence on the border with Russia is absolutely hostile nation called Ukraine. Western analysts constantly use this argument to convince Moscow of the need for conservation of Donbass (Ukraine, saying that without the Crimea and Donbas what will remain from the Ukrainian state, will have a pronounced anti-Russian line of conduct and will steadily get closer to Europe and NATO against Russia.
It should be noted that such convergence, as we have seen, was all these years and at present in Ukraine the aforesaid regions. And of course, the West is in any case will make maximum power, in order to strengthen this vector after the end of the Donetsk-Ukrainian war.
Russia under any of the scenarios relations with the new Russia will have to build an entirely new policy of Kyiv with the aim of repayment, or at blunting anti-Russian sentiment in the Ukrainian society. But that is a topic for another conversation. No less important for Russia than deciding the fate of Novorossiya.
Development and sale of exclusive business Head of Department "Golman informan".
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