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13:45China vs US: who will win?
China August 28 - News. The world today is witnessing the beginning of an open economic war, China and the United States. Thank God, so far only the economic, but the exchange of the explosions does not inspire optimism at all. |
The reason for the war is trivial. US global leader in a bygone era, the major victories in the past. And like any leader, to defeat an opponent, who was considered the main and most dangerous - the USSR, he rested on their laurels miss the emergence and formation of other dangerous competitor.
China also - the economic leaders of the future era, stung by the fact that its economic potential has not yet been implemented fully in the political influence on the world.
Please note that in this article I deliberately distancing himself from any issues related to the possible transformation of the entire global economic system. All consideration is exclusively in terms of values and the current reality. This will more clearly define the starting positions of the Parties to the beginning of the unfolding of open war.
Consider the stage of preparation
- To increase the economic potential of the real sector to the point that the level of GDP PPP came in first place. And it is with all the "miracles" of modern statistics, initially puts it unfair for.
- To create a powerful financial system based on a few large banks, state-controlled. Today, the list of world's largest banks by assets only 4 Chinese and one American. And even the result of the capitalization of 4: 4. That is China "increased its muscles" to parity (at least) in the field that the US is the main. And this is without taking into account the quality of assets (for China).
- Collect large gold reserves, including US dollars, which is its instrument of pressure on the reliability of the US debt market. In US Treasuries, until recently, China had more than 1.2 trillion dollars. Actively build up gold reserves, and most of them hides on the balance sheets of commercial banks so as not to frighten the "world community." Real gold reserves in China are estimated at more than 10 thousand. Tonnes.
- Doling out all over the world almost complete set of modern technology with a few exceptions, and actively apply them in practical production.
- Created the months of all strategic reserves of material resources, including energy. It is actually a global monopoly on the production of rare earth metals, and actively uses this monopoly to blackmail unyielding "partners" in the acquisition of more modern technology.
- Economically subdued Taiwan, the only real competitor in the production of mass electronic circuits. Moreover, Taiwan has actually moved most of its production on the continent.
- To create a modern high-tech army. Nuclear capabilities, in principle, until the end is unknown, but is sufficient to inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy. Actively increase the Navy, that is playing "in the meadow," in which the United States considers itself the sole significant player. And let the Chinese do not have the image of the strong fighters, the Americans are not the best.
- Financial subjugated Europe - the natural ally of the US. Without regular infusions of money in the debt market in Europe from China, it will collapse in a few weeks.
- Almost completely eliminated at material production.
- Overloaded balances its largest banks illiquid and risky derivatives stockbroking so that without the regular participation of the Federal Reserve are virtually incapacitated.
- Not real gold reserves. Even nominal gold in Fort Knox (approx. 8 th. Tons) was granted in rent to private banks, and then disappeared in an unknown direction. The United States does not even have a real opportunity to return the gold country, trusting them once storage.
- All the technologies developed, including some of the military, work in factories in China and Taiwan.
- Of the actual material resources there is only oil, which is also not so long ago began to actively sell.
- Shuffled it past one of the main allies in the region - Taiwan so that the Pentagon estimates are no longer able to protect him, even through military means in case of a conflict with China.
- With all the ostentatious power of the army is constantly falling apart. Nuclear arsenals are deteriorating. In fact, the only significant force remains the Navy.
- So overextended and transferring its natural allies - Europe and that any opportunity to slip out of the power of the United States of Europe will be perceived to cheer.
It may seem that the author exaggerates, or even vdarit in fantasy. But try to independently assess all the above items. And you will see that if there is an exaggeration, it is extremely small.
In addition to the above interesting and different. China is an ancient civilization and the teaching of the art of war, he mastered long ago. Much earlier than the United States were born. "Art of War" dates back to 6-5 century BC. And let these teachings today, and also taught at West Point, a little training. It is necessary, among other things have also appropriate philosophy.
Among the tenets of this doctrine, there are those who say that victory is achieved even before the battle. And that in order to win it is necessary to deceive the enemy. And China is very good deceived the United States. The world still lives secure in the knowledge that China, kept their gold reserves in the US and European debt, as well as selling a significant portion of its products in the US and Europe is actually in the position of the wage-worker is not able to rebel for fear of losing are all available.
But this is a profound error resulting from the current mindless worship fetishes. If China and even lose some of its assets, he will win a lot more. He will be the only economic powerhouse in the world. The collapse of the financial system of the West will not change the situation in which China will remain the sole supplier of a variety of products consumed by the population of America and Europe. And it is not only the most powerful economic, but also political dependence.
Of course, this is an extreme option on the verge of "hot war." And the same would prefer China to do more lenient measures, gradual increase of its power and as a gradual replacement of the dollar to the yuan as a reserve currency. But this does not negate China's willingness to take more decisive steps.
In practice, China has already moved from the quiet accumulation of advantages to the direct pressure on the West to recognize its power and influence. This is reflected in the fact that:
- With a large number of China signed an agreement on mutual exchange swaps, cross out the mediation of the dollar in mutual payments.
- Began to issue external debt denominated in RMB.
- Announced a further acquisition of oil only for yuan.
- Prepared under his control the international financial institutions to replace the pro-American World Bank and IMF.
- Actively developing land transport routes to Europe is not dependent on the US-controlled Strait of Malacca.
- Signed an agreement on strategic partnership with Russia, providing an uncontrolled US (through the same strait) channel energy supplies.
- There is tremendous economic activity in Africa and Latin America, becoming for many regions of the country's main trading partner.
- To begin the process otvyazki the yuan from the dollar, which has already undertaken through and planned to further devaluation of the yuan will not only protect its competitive advantage in the industrial sector, but also to have a pretext to reduce their investments in dollars and euros. In recent years, China has been under the guise of the need for funds to save her from the stock market collapse brought out of Treasuries over 100 billion. Dollars.
- The fast pace continued accumulation of gold in reserves and at the same time created the most modern infrastructure in the world for its storage and trade.
Is it any wonder that these actions cause of China's US and European real panic?
And one more thing. China would behave so strongly if he was not sure that the best of its support from the rest of the world is enough to secure the victory and full of them world leadership.
And it is very symbolic that it is happening at a time when China September 2-3, will celebrate the 70th anniversary of victory in the Pacific front of World War II.
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