Главная » 2014 » Октябрь » 24 » How to start a war and lose the Empire
16:46How to start a war and lose the Empire
year and a half I wrote an essay about how the US prefers to consider
Russia, called "the Enemy". I lived in Russia, and, after observing
American anti-Russian rhetoric and the Russian reaction to it, I made
several observations that seemed important at the time. It turned out
that I had spotted an important trend, but given the rapid developments
since then, these observations are now extremely outdated. Thus, I
present to update.|
At that time rates were not very high. There was a lot of noise around some Magnitsky, a corporate lawyer is a crook, who was caught and died in pre-trial detention. He had dirt on some of the major Western rogues, who, naturally, was not caught. The Americans decided to consider it as a violation of human rights and said the so-called "Magnitsky Act". Under this law were authorized some Russian citizens who were assigned shortcuts human rights violators. Russian lawmakers said the "Dima Yakovlev Law", named after a Russian boy-orphans adopted by Americans, who killed him, leaving him in a closed car for nine hours. This law forbade the killing of orphans American monsters adoptions of Russian orphans. All of this was a bit silly melodrama.
But what difference did a year and a half! Ukraine, which at that time was destroyed approximately uniform steady pace, as it was since its independence two decades ago, now truly inactive state. Its economy is in free fall, one region left, the other two open rebellion, a large part of the country terrorities oligarchs, funding death squads, and some anointed Americans puppets nominally in power, but tremble for the future. Syria and Iraq, which then raged on a slow fire, has since evolved into a full-scale war, with the greater part of the territories of both countries now under the control of the Islamic Caliphate, which was formed with the assistance of the U.S., was armed with American weapons through Iraqis. Libya after Gaddafi seems to be working to create their own Islamic Caliphate. Against this background, deep failure of U.S. foreign policy, they have recently decided to accuse Russia that its troops are "on the threshold of NATO", as if it has nothing to do with the fact that NATO expanded eastward, even to the borders of Russia. It is not surprising that relations between Russia and the United States has now reached the point where the Russians considered it necessary to issue a stern warning: further attempts by the West to blackmail can lead to nuclear confrontation.
American behavior in this whole series of defeats was remarkably consistent, where a constant element was their refusal to deal with reality in any way, shape or form. As before, in Syria, the Americans are constantly looking for moderate, Pro-Western Islamists who want to do what I want Americans to overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad), but will not destroy all those infidel invaders, which they can put their hands. The fact that such moderate Pro-Western Islamists don't seem to exist, does not affect U.S. strategy in the region.
Similarly, in Ukraine, the fact that a major American investment in "freedom and democracy", in "the open society" or anything else, led to the government, dominated by the Nazis, and the civil war, according to Americans, just Russian propaganda. Massirovanie under the banner of Hitler's Ukrainian SS division and the anointing of Nazi collaborators as national heroes, just not convincing enough for them. That should make the Nazis to prove that they are Nazis? To build multiple furnaces and fry some Jews? Simply arranging the slaughter of people, torching buildings, as it was in Odessa, or shooting unarmed civilians in the back and dumping them in mass graves, as they did in Donetsk, doesn't seem to work. The fact that many people refused to be under the rule of Nazi thugs and successfully resisted them, caused gluing them Americans label "Pro-Russian separatists." This, in turn, was used for the prosecution of all problems in Ukraine, Russia and the introduction of sanctions against it. Sanctions will be revised, if Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine. The problem is that the Russian troops in Ukraine.
Note that this kind of behavior is not something new. The Americans invaded Afghanistan because the Taliban otherwise would not Osama bin Laden (who was a CIA operative), while the Americans will not provide evidence implicating him in 9/11, which did not exist. The Americans invaded Iraq because Saddam Hussein would give up his weapons of mass destruction that did not exist. They intervened in Libya because Gaddafi would not refuse from official positions that he occupied. They were ready to invade Syria because Bashar al-Assad has used chemical weapons against its own people, which he didn't. And now they have introduced sanctions against Russia, because Russia is destabilized and invaded the Ukraine, which she did (United States).
Sanctions against Russia pay an additional kind of unreality, because they hit a "boomerang" and harm the West, giving the government an incentive to do what it wanted to do. Sanctions have adversely affected a number of Russian businessmen and officials, who promptly pulled their money out of Western banks, pulled children from Western schools and universities, and did everything he could to demonstrate that they are good Patriotic Russian, not American lackeys. Sanctions have affected the number of Russian energy companies, isolating them from the Western sources of technology and financing, but it will primarily hurt the revenues of Western energy companies, at the same time helping their Chinese competitors. There were even some threats to cut off Russia from the SWIFT system, which is quite complicated the transfer of funds between Russia and the West. However, the fact that these threats instead did gave Russia an incentive to enter their own system RUSSWIFT, which will include even Iran, neutralizing the future American efforts on the introduction of financial constraints.
The sanctions were intended to inflict economic damage, but the efforts of the West, designed to cause short-term economic damage Russia, fail. Combined with a significant fall in oil prices, it was all going to hurt Russia financially, but because sanctions have caused the fall of the ruble in tandem, the net balance of the Russian public finances balanced. Oil prices lower, but, thanks, in particular, sanctions, and the ruble, and as the revenue from oil sales is still largely in dollars, this means that Russia's tax revenues are roughly on the same level as before. And since Russian oil companies earn in US dollars abroad, and spending on the domestic market in rubles, it does not affect their production costs.
The Russians also said opposing sanctions and took a few quick steps to neutralize the effect of sanctions on them. Russia banned the import of products from countries of the European Union, to the horror of their farmers. Hardest was received by those EU member States that are particularly anti-Russian: the Baltic States, which, together with Poland, instantly lost a large share of its GDP. An exception was made for Serbia, which refused to join the sanctions. The conclusion here is simple: a friendship that lasted many centuries, have value; that Americans want - not what Americans receive; and the EU is just a piece of paper. Thus, counter-sanctions drive a wedge between the US and the EU and within the EU between Eastern Europe (which the sanctions are hurting more than anyone) and Western Europe, and, most importantly, they bring the main idea that the USA is not Europe another.
Is something that will become more important in the long term: Russia took the hint and turns away from the West towards the East. She turns his open defiance of American attempts at world domination in trade relations around the world, much of which was already tired of paying tribute to Washington. Russia plays a key role in the establishment of the international banking system, which will allow you to bypass the dollar and the Federal Reserve system of the USA. More than half the world's population and territory on the side of Russia and loudly applauded her efforts. Thus, efforts to isolate Russia produced the opposite of the intended result: instead, they isolate the West from the rest of the world.
For other items, the sanctions actually useful. A ban on food imports from the EU is a boon for domestic agriculture, fixing politically important lesson: not to accept food from the hands of those bites you. Russia is already one of the world's largest grain exporters, and there is no reason why it cannot become fully self-sufficient in food. The impetus to rearm in the face of occurrence of NATO to the Russian border (the American troops already stationed in Estonia, just a short drive from the second largest Russian city of St. Petersburg) provides the necessary impetus for industrial reconstruction. This round of military spending plan a little more reasonable than in Soviet times, with possible civil conversion as part of the plan from the beginning. Thus, along with the world's best jet fighters, Russia likely will begin to build on the export of civilian aircraft and compete with Airbus and Boeing.
But this is only the beginning. Russians, it seems, finally realized the extent to which the playing field was skewed against them. They were forced to play by the rules of Washington in two main ways: by bending under the will of Washington in order to maintain their high credit ratings with three key Western rating agencies in order to ensure access to Western credits; and playing by Western rules when issuing their own loans, thus keeping domestic interest rates at an artificially high level. As a result, American companies were able to more cheaply to Fund their operations, artificially making them more competitive. But now, when Russia is fast exit from under the U.S. dollar, taking the trade on a bilateral currency arrangements (with the support of gold in the case of trade imbalances), it also seeks to use the printing press to his advantage. Today dictate, the descent from Washington, is the following: "we can print money as we please, but you can't, otherwise we will destroy you." But this threat is becoming more and more empty, and Russia will not use its dollar revenues for the purchase of debt obligations of the United States. One currently under consideration, the proposal is to make it impossible to pay for Russian oil export anything except rubles, by creating two oil brokerage centers: one in St. Petersburg, the other seven time zones from him in Vladivostok. Foreign buyers of oil will have to earn their afteronly honest way - by means of bilateral trade or, if they can't produce enough of what Russians want to import, they can pay for oil with gold (as long as they have the resources). Or the Russians could simply print money, and to ensure that it will not cause domestic inflation, they could export a little inflation, playing with the oil valve and export duties on oil. And if George Soros like him decides to attack the ruble in the effort to devalue it, Russia can defend its currency by simply reducing the printing rubles - no need to accumulate dollar reserves.
While this all looks like a normal economic war: Americans want to get what they want by printing money, both bombing and sanctions punishing those who transgress them, while the rest of the world tries to resist them. But in the beginning of 2014, the situation changed. Has been inspired by the U.S. coup in Kiev, and instead accept it and to accept, as they had to do, the Russians acted quickly and brilliantly successful campaign for the return of the Crimea. Then they have successfully checkmated the junta in Kiev, deprived of its ability to consolidate control over the rest of the former Ukrainian territory, allowing the input of volunteers, weapons, equipment and humanitarian aid and access hundreds of thousands of refugees through strictly conditional Russian-Ukrainian border, avoiding direct military confrontation with NATO. Seeing all this happening on the evening news, awakened the Russian population from political slumber, forced him to sit up and pay attention, and raised the rating of Putin to the historical maximum.
"Optics", as they like to say in the White house, quite sinister. We approach the 70th anniversary of the Victory in the great Patriotic war is a momentous event for Russians, who are proud that defeated Hitler almost single-handedly. At the same time, the United States (the self-proclaimed sworn enemies of Russia) took this opportunity to awaken and nurture the monster of Nazism right on the border with Russia (within the borders of Russia, as some would say Russians/Ukrainians). This, in turn, reminded the Russians about the unique historical mission of Russia among the peoples of the world: it is the suppression of all attempts by other Nations on world domination, whether Napoleonic France, Nazi Germany or Obmeniala America. About once in a century kind of nation forgets the lessons of history and attacks Russia. The result is always the same: many drifts of dead bodies, and then the Russian cavalry rides in Paris, or Russian tanks rolling in Berlin. Who knows how it will end this time? Perhaps a polite, well-armed men in green uniforms without insignia, patrolling the streets of Brussels and Washington, DC. Time will tell.
It would seem that Obama has overplayed his hand, and should behave accordingly. His popularity at home about reverse Putin, though I must admit that Obama remains more popular than the Ebola, but not much. He can't finish, no matter how meaningless or useless, and his efforts in the country and abroad have so far been largely complete failure. So what is this social worker, turned into a national mascot, decides to do? In the opinion of the Russians, he decided to declare war on Russia! In case you missed, find his speech before the UN General Assembly. It is on the web site of the White house. He placed Russia right between the Case and the Lavrentyev Institute of hydrodynamics among the first three threats facing the world. In Russian eyes, his speech reads like a Declaration of war.
This is a new, mixed-species war. This is not total war to the death, although the US, by the standards of the old cold war, is now a rather careless in the prevention of nuclear confrontation. This is an information war, based on lies and unfair discredit; it is the financial and economic war with the use of sanctions; this is a political war with the use of violent overthrow of the elected government and the support of hostile regimes on the borders of Russia; and that a military confrontation applying ineffective, but nonetheless offensive moves, such as the deployment of a handful of American troops in Estonia. The goal of this war is clear: to undermine Russia economically, to destroy her politically, to divide it geographically, and to turn it into a pliable vassal state, which will give its natural resources in the West practically free (with some handouts bunch of Russian oligarchs and criminal scumbags who play by the rules). But it is unlikely that this will happen, because, you see, many Russians actually understand it and will choose not popular in the West, leaders, and those that will lead them to victory.
Given the fact that the US and Russia, like it or not, in a state of war, no matter how opaque and turbid, people in Russia are trying to understand why it happened, and what it means. It is clear that the United States considered Russia an enemy roughly from the time of the 1917 revolution, if not before. For example, it is known that after the Second World war, American military planners thought to launch a nuclear strike on the USSR, and the only thing they kept was that they didn't have enough bombs. This means that Russia would have captured the whole of Europe, before the effects of nuclear strikes could keep her from it (Russia had nuclear weapons, but there were many conventional armed forces in Central Europe).
But why war was declared now, and why it was declared that the social worker was turned into a national "non-leader" * ? Some keen observers have mentioned the slogan "the audacity of hope" and ventured to suggest that this kind of "audacity" (which in Russian sounds more like "stupidity") may be a key feature of his character that makes him want to be a leader of the Universe, as Napoleon or Hitler. Others have viewed the delirium of his campaign in the first presidential election (which is so lit stupid young Americans) and found some positive statements about the various soldiers of the cold war. Do you think that Obama might be the expert on the history and cunning geopolitical in his own right? (This question usually makes me laugh, because most people know that he's just a fool and repeats everything he is told his advisors). Hugo Chavez once called him "a hostage in the White house", and he was not far from the truth. So, why are his advisors so eager to start a war with Russia right now, this year?
Is it not because the US is crumbling faster than most people can imagine? Here the line of reasoning is the following: the American scheme of world domination through military aggression and unlimited printing of money is crumbling before our eyes. The public is no longer interested in the presence of American troops, bombing not help to curb militants, which the Americans themselves had helped to organize and equip, dollar hegemony evaporates every day, and the Federal Reserve ended a magic wand, and she faces a choice: to fall the stock market or the bond market. In order to stop or at least to prevent it falling into financial/economic/political oblivion, the US needs to take quick actions to undermine any competitive economy in the world by any means, which remained in their possession, whether the bombing, revolution or pandemic (although the latter is a bit more difficult to keep under control). Russia is the obvious target, because it is the only country in the world that has enough common sense to actually show international leadership in confronting and defeating the United States. Therefore, Russia must be punished first, to keep the others in check.
I couldn't agree with this logic, but I want to add something.
First, the American aggression against Russia and much of the rest of the world is that Americans like to call "facts", and they require time to create. The world was not created in one day, and he can't be destroyed in one day (if not to use nuclear weapons, that is a lose-lose strategy for all, including the United States). But the whole financial house of cards can be destroyed pretty quickly, and here Russia can achieve a lot, risking little. In financial terms, Russia's position is so strong that even three Western rating agencies are hesitant to downgrade Russia, despite sanctions. This is a country that actively repay its foreign debt, has a record high budget surplus, the surplus of the balance of payments, accumulate physical gold reserves, and there isn't a month that she has not signed any major international trade transaction (bypassing the US dollar). For comparison, the US - the walking dead: if he will not be able to continue to refinance the trillions of dollars of short-term debt each month on record-low interest rates, they will not be able to pay the interest on their debts or bills. Goodbye, social state; Hello, riots. Goodbye, defense contractors and Federal law enforcement agencies; hi, chaos and open borders. Now, in order to forge "facts"requires physical actions, and to cause financial stampede to the exit, just to have someone shouted, "Boo!" loud and scary.
Secondly, you must understand that at the moment the American ruling elite is almost completely ludicrous. The oldest seems ludicrous in the medical sense. Take, for example, Leon Panetta (Leon Panetta), former Minister of Defense: he began his new book and still accuses Syria of Bashar al-Assad gassing his own people! Today we all know that that operation was a "false flag"made some bezmozgis Syrian rebels with the help of Saud, to give a pretext for the US to bomb Syria, you know, the old nonsense of "weapons of mass destruction". (By the way, this kind of meaningless, repetitive insistence on fake logic seems to be a sure sign of insanity.) The plan failed because Putin and Lavrov intervened and persuaded Assad to give up his useless stockpile of chemical weapons. The Americans were beside themselves with rage. Thus, all know the story, except Panetta. Understand how only American official begins to lie, he just doesn't know how to stop. The story always starts with a lie, and as soon as a pop-up facts that contradict the original story, they are simply ignored.
It as a decrepit old guard, but how about replacing them? Well, the poster boy for the young is a hunter Biden, son of Vice-President, who made "prostitutes and drugs" ** tour to Ukraine last summer and won a seat in the Board of Directors of the largest in Ukraine gas company (which was not so much gas). He has just been pushed out for his friendship with cocaine. In addition to many of the same pre-anointed as the son of VP, there are also many barns, full ready bleedig graduates of the ivy League, which tended to work in high places. They are all "good sheep" prof Tarasevich ***.
There are not so many, for such people, young or old, can respond. International disgrace, military defeat, a humanitarian catastrophe - all these things just bounce off them and stick to you for what you mention them, and for the fact that you are too negative about their rosy ideas about myself. The only shot that they can really feel, is a blow to your budget.
Which brings us back to my original point: "Boo!"
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