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19:35Kasparov on the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine
Kasparov recently published a remarkable article: Putin with weak cards
makes insane rate. "The Chairman of the international Foundation for the
protection of human rights, the Russian opposition, repeated world
chess champion Garry Kasparov this week took part in the Warsaw security
In an exclusive interview to UKRINFORM he appreciated the psychology of thinking Russian President Vladimir Putin, showed the weaknesses of the West and noticed that you need to pay attention to a victory over the current regime in Russia.
"PUTIN WILL ATTACK, UKRAINE IS NOT THE ONLY GOAL"
- At the Donbass remains shaky truce, although every day there are dying Ukrainian soldiers and ordinary people. In conditions approaching winter will not dare, in Your opinion, Putin on the resumption of the "hot” phase of the war on the Eastern Ukraine?
- I would like to believe that mass bloodshed in Ukraine there will be no more, but no guarantees there. You have to understand that we are dealing with a paranoid aggressor, for which external aggression is the main form of maintaining your own rating.
The fact that Putin will attack, it is clear to me. The question is that Ukraine is not the only direction. There is still the possibility (Putin - as amended) to arrange provocations in the Baltic countries. This is a tempting prospect, because it will be a direct blow to NATO. And there's a South direction. I believe that Georgia and Azerbaijan are not able to feel safe because there are reasons: the frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, which now began to unfreeze, Russia's demand to receive the corridor to Armenia. By the way, was a little territorial dispute in the district of Dagestan and Azerbaijan.
Actually Putin has the ability to provoke a variety of conflicts in the former Soviet Union and for him it is a way of survival. Nothing more Putin is not in a position today to offer the Russian people.
"THE WEST MUST SEIZE THE INITIATIVE PUTIN"
- Economic sanctions, Russia has gradually felt...
- Correctly. Actually everything has a relationship in time and space. Today's sanctions are better than nothing, but they were too late. If these same sanctions were imposed would be in February, when he (Putin - as amended) clearly said that annexes the Crimea, they could have success. The problem is that the West all the time go after them (Russia's actions - as amended). But the choice is not between war and peace, and the emphasis on deterrence. Deterrence implies that you do things that send a very clear signal that more will follow so-and-so.
Unfortunately, Putin sees no serious opposition, he doesn't take Obama seriously. He sees leadership in the West, which could really oppose. But the problem is that the further into the aggressor, the higher the price of confrontation. Today the need is greater than would be required in February. It is obvious that if the West began to put weapons in Ukraine in April-may, then perhaps the August invasion would not be.
In the end, Putin must also reckon with the number of coffins that are going to Russia. We don't know exactly how many of them came (we're not talking about terrorists, or other so-called militias, and about of the regular Russian army) - 300, 400, 500, likely some such number. It is obvious that if the account will go into thousands, then this may be an unacceptable price. Still, let's not forget about Afghanistan.
Therefore, any action April-may-June could have prevented what happened in August. Now you want anymore. Much greater insulation and much more violent confrontations. We cannot allow these statements Lavrov (on guarantees of Ukraine does not join the NATO and so on - as amended) remained unanswered. Unfortunately, today it is clear that while the initiative for the adoption of decisions on the side of Putin. He can hit, for example, Mariupol and no this will not be ready.
"NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL PUTIN, HAVE CONCERNS SERIOUSLY
- How far can he go?
"I don't want to scare anyone, but we must understand that if one seriously says and repeats and repeats that nuclear weapons is a way of threats and Russian television constantly develops this idea, I would like to know: NATO at all ready yet incredible scenario of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? This is a crazy scenario, but 10 months ago, people assumed that there will be reports from the Russian-Ukrainian front?
It is very important that the sheet that Putin will never do (we hear: do not, I will not), this sheet is already infinite. Actually, many things he has already done - and you have to listen to what he says. Because of his speech, say February, March, April, they are quite clearly articulated his political programme. But all said, it only says so. He does it! Actually, many things are in his speech.
So today, when he praises Khrushchev for nuclear blackmail, we need seriously to take it. You have to be ready for it. Not the fact that we have to face it, but the chances are that it will finally go crazy, give some kind of crazy team and there will be people around that will be to do there. He can give the team. The task is to these people was not that they knew what awaits them in the execution of such orders.
"IT IS IMPORTANT THAT BY PUTIN'S INCREASINGLY DISTANCED THEMSELVES FROM HIM"
During his speech at the Warsaw forum you said that Europe is trying to play with Putin in chess, while he plays poker...
"Of course, he plays poker. Poker game means that you can't throw the card constantly. The problem is that he plays with weak cards. However, we all know it. There are a couple of eights, and then - "Full house”. But the problem is that he makes insane rate, and Europe with America constantly fold. It is therefore very important to understand the psychology of the player. After all, when you play with someone, you have to understand with whom you play. You do not play against some undefined value as a person. Moreover, in this case, it's not even a whole country, and specifically one man with his psychological portrait, with its strengths and weaknesses, and for him the game in such a political poker has become an obsession. Because he believes that opposite - weaklings. He raises the bet and they fold, it further raises. This creates in him a sense of impunity.
The most dangerous thing that we know from the history of Germany... If its luck, its constant success - three, seven, ACE - it begins to spread to others, then people say, if he is lucky, then we must be together with him. If this happens across the country, it is a complete disaster. Therefore, it is very important that today, those who are still able to think, so they began to distance themselves from him. Some people already burned bridges. But still, the environment is not ten people. We understand there are hundreds of families, if not thousands, who have clans and can influence them. They should understand that the price will be unacceptable to them. Moreover, to find out relationship with them is not so difficult: many children, property to be here (in the West - as amended), and not in Iran, not in China.
"IF CRIMEA CEASES TO BE PART OF THE PROBLEM, PUTIN HAS ALREADY WON"
- So the conclusion is: the West should strengthen sanctions against Russia and to organize the supply of arms Ukraine to protect its territory?
- Actually, it's not a quantitative increase in the sanctions, and the qualitative change in the situation. Putin must understand, or even not he, and the rest that it's long. Tomorrow sanctions will not be canceled. They all believe that winter will pass, the sanctions will cancel. They must understand that all this remains until it is restored the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Together with the Crimea...
Of course, the boundaries should be restored. As soon as we say "good-bye, Crimea, then destroy the entire system of international relations that has developed after 1945. The question should not be: if Crimea ceases to be part of the problem, Putin has already won.
His mind no
The Ukrainian government will work with the citizens of the United States, Georgia, Germany, Poland and Lithuania
The President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is going to introduce in Parliament a law allowing foreign nationals to work in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, reports the November 27 edition of the "Ukrainian truth". As the article says, "the Block Petro Poroshenko has turned into a major recruitment company that found foreign managers for the posts of Ministers."Nominees have nothing to do with our party. On the posts of Ministers of Ukraine will be able to work the citizens of America, Georgia, Germany, Poland, Lithuania. Knowledge of English and check the lie detector - binding," said one of the deputies from the PPO.
He said that some of the candidates in the presidential unit still waiting for consent. Another interlocutor in the political power Poroshenko says that some top managers agree to receive Ukrainian citizenship.Also it stated that the coordination of search Ministers were engaged in personally by the head of the presidential administration of Ukraine Borys Lozhkin, and Deputy head of the presidential administration Dmitry shymkiv, the former head of Microsoft in Ukraine - forms the idea of creating a Fund, donors will pay for the work of these Ministers.
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