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14:41LNR(Lugansk national Republic) and DNR(Donetsk national Republic)
2 November LNR(Lugansk national Republic) and DND(Donetsk national Republic) was held for the first of these unrecognized
States elections. Were they in a tense atmosphere, with periodic
cease-fire violations and international pressure. However, everything
went quite well with a good organization, high turnout and, most
importantly, without serious incident. The election actually legitimized
the government of the republics. Chapter DND became acting Prime
Minister Alexander Zakharchenko, and LNR was headed by Igor Carpentry.|
The reaction of Ukraine on elections was hysterical, which, of course, could be expected. The President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has already hastened to say about the promised "adequate" response - today (November 4) the Council will consider the abolition of the law on local self-government in selected districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
In fact, it means the complete cessation of any negotiations between the conflicting parties. If the actions of the leadership of Ukraine has at least some logic, then the next action after the abolition of this law shall be the output of the ceasefire and the military attempt of revenge. Otherwise it means freezing conflict transformation LNR and DND in something like Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, etc.
Another thing is that in contrast to the same Transnistria, Republic share a border with Russia and great for the unrecognized republics of the population (about 5 million) and industrial potential (working also for the most part in Russian). In this scenario, these formations is unlikely for a long time will be "hanging" in the unrecognized form. And when the final success of the formation of these two new States (the standard of living and stability higher than in Ukraine), to the project of the new Russia will want to join several regions of Ukraine. In fact, it will mean the end of the history of the state under the name of Ukraine (in the form which we know it), so as to help the new rebels will immediately come already formed the armed forces LNR and DND and the flow of new volunteers.
Logical path, which means a new round of active military clash, also does not promise Ukraine no good. Its armed forces will be waiting for an offensive campaign in the territory with a hostile population and in winter conditions. And all of this acute shortage of Finance and have no special advantages in weaponry, which was so "successful" Mat managed to lose in fights with irregular formations LNR and DND. By the way, the armed forces of the unrecognized republics began the war with a few hundred small arms and anti-tank weapons, and finished it with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery, not much inferior in quality and quantity Mat. Themselves the armed forces of Ukraine closer to the signing of the armistice began to withdraw from the conservation and recover quite old technique. The heaviest losses were suffered and the air force of the country, nearly lost their combat effectiveness.
What can cause a resumption of the conflict in this situation is not difficult to understand. Loss coming parties may be at times higher than during the summer campaign. Any help from the local population in severe winter conditions don't have to hope. Actions of reconnaissance and sabotage groups and partisans who violate the supply of troops with fuel, food, clothing and ammunition in such a situation can lead to frostbite of the personnel and the mass of non-combat losses. An even greater fall so low the morale of soldiers, the APU will probably lead to mass desertion.
Unfortunately, for the population LNR and DND will also be good enough - just waking up people will be in full humanitarian disaster because of doubt that the APU will attack both civilian communications, no.
How will be able to move the armed forces LNR and DND, if they can launch a counter-attack, it is difficult to predict. However, it is clear that the threat of loss of Mariupol and Slavyansk stand in front of the Mat quickly.
For the current authorities in the city such a scenario could be fatal. Unlikely to stay in their seats after repeating shame, Yes, and on a larger scale. In addition, it will be impossible to write off the incident on the unpreparedness and "transitivity" of the government. The economic consequences of renewed conflict will also be the hardest.
From the above we can conclude: the termination of negotiations and break agreements with LNR and DND will be another gross mistake of Kiev in any case - as when the conflict is frozen, and the resumption of the war. In fact, Ukraine is in a stalemate, meaning the likely further disintegration of the country - either slow or fast.
Another thing that causes little doubt, is that Western sanctions against the Russian Federation under any of these developments will not be released for a long time, and probably will be strengthened. This, perhaps, is the real purpose of the Kiev puppet, whom fate of their own state, apparently, no longer interested. Since coming to power, they are only doing what you are taking steps for the collapse of their state. We need only recall that initially the population of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions requiring only a small preferences - official Russian language in their territories and gubernatorial elections. What was the result of criminal actions Kiev authorities, we all know.
Correctly read: "DNR"
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