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07:33Russia US urges war and peace in the Middle East
sends army to the Middle East to fight in Syria with the "Islamic
caliphate" - this is the largest global sensation last days.
Around the "new Russian aggression" it has already clocked up so many
things you need to return the hysteria and provocative in place, to
understand what Russia wants. Certainly not to fight for the interests of others. |
Rumors on increasing military aid from Russia to Damascus and the emergence of the Russian military in Syria - the beginning of inserted by Israel and then picked up by the media and the world - created a furor. After the call the Secretary of State Kerry Lavrov, expressing concern about this and the response of Vladimir Putin to the question of the transfer of Russians to Syria warplanes - "We are considering various possibilities, but what he said, still we have on the agenda is not worth "" say we are willing to do today is premature to talk about it "- and makes exalted further decided just begun.
"The deteriorating situation in the Greater Middle East concerned about Russia much more than the States"
Dealing with "evidence" of the presence of Russian troops in Syria, there is no special need - which became quite clear, but it is clear that the rumors fell into well-prepared soil. Prepared as a stalemate on the Syrian front, and the fact that Russia in recent months has taken the initiative in the region.
After more than four years of war in Syria, and more than a year after the proclamation of the territory of the republic and neighboring Iraq "Islamic caliphate" Middle East powder keg constantly attracts the eyes of the world community. Naturally, Russia is trying to find solutions to problems that can not be called a local or even a regional one. This is not the Syrian issue, with all the horror of the destruction of this country - is a problem caliphate expansion. Which by its very existence threatens not only to all Islamic countries, but also Europe and, of course, Russia, which has its own twenty million Muslims and the Central Asian states allied us with a greater number of fans Prophet.
It is clear that the emergence of the Caliphate - a response to US and European intervention in the region, all existing conflicts there and actually blew the fragile process of change and artificial format, created by the West begins, but still existing boundaries of the Greater Middle East.
Caliphate combines the natural desire of Sunni Arabs to rebuild their lives in accordance with the Sharia and bloody revenge as the guilty and the innocent residents of national or religious minorities. As the war against the Western Crusaders and the desire to destroy the secular regimes, who built socialism and Arab tribes Gulf kingdom farce. During the caliphate of war as former officials of Saddam's Baath Party and veteran jihadists various wars involving Muslims. It was built by the local ulema and young people came from Europe, children were installed in Muslim Old World. Caliphate wants to expel the infidels from Muslim lands and the first to combine all Arabs and all Muslims then Nigeria to Indonesia, from Morocco to Xinjiang, from the Caucasus to Pakistan. This is the biggest challenge to the entire world system - and especially the West, realizing their plan of globalization.
Therefore, it is an absurd version of the blood of US interest in the existence of the caliphate. States, of course, try to benefit from the proliferation of "Islamic state" - but his "profit" in this case can be compared with the remaining free coals of burnt house, they rent a landlord can fry a shish kebab.
Caliphate - a challenge at a time, and no theory of "controlled chaos" is not applicable. The USA. It is not a virtuoso of manipulation - of domination based on military, financial, personnel and ideological power. Opening and bleeding opponents and potential competitors, bribes and threats, blackmail and the use of special services, "soft power" with its technology to destabilize the internal situation of the enemy, the programming and the disruption caused - especially Washington, for Of course it also applies, but only when you can not act ahead, direct force.
In the Middle East after the collapse of the bipolar world States "only" to strengthen its position, to make the region more manageable - but after several wars and clumsy participation in the "Arab Spring" has achieved the opposite result.
States with the 60s were perceived as an ally of the Arabs of Israel - and Washington for years tried to convince the leaders of the Arab world, who wants to be his friend. If you believe it was the Arab street is not possible, the local rulers of the United States really wanted to convince his indispensability as an ally and protector. After retiring from the Middle East problem USSR to the United States eased dramatically - seemed to take away from his solo candidate and leadership claim in the Arab world, Iraq and the whole region will depend on the United States, to be eligible to play in the contradictions between the countries simultaneously Emirates is mediating in his showdown with Israel, its "protection" of Iran.
But the invasion of Iraq - as he said - has opened a Pandora's box.
After the occupation of the United thought "simply" weaken Iraq - to grant autonomy to the region and the transfer of power in northern Kurdish Shiite Sunni rebels from bears - emigrants returning from the West. But the process of disintegration of the country and civil strife, naturally extended its borders. Shortly after the departure of the US completely destroyed in Iraq began "Arab Spring" - a complex mixture of domestic protests against the government and the Western mind manipulation. The Arab world is storm began - and the West took advantage of this to invade Libya and Syria to rise. Syrian Civil War fired its neighbors - Saudi and Qatari - along with Western-backed Syrian emigration. States and how clean they are inconvenient for the last regime imagined - Assad. But here intervenes Russia.
It turned out that Russia will not withdraw from Assad - might have survived without our help, and it would have to support Iran, but Moscow's geopolitical importance in the Syrian crisis has been very high. Damascus did not fall, and in 2013, Putin actually prevent direct attacks from the US to Syria (which could result in a terrible catastrophe, until the war between Iran and Israel) - and the Arabs have seen that Russia actually returned Middle East.
To fight for the creators of the "Islamic State"
And the United States has lost a person - allies of yesterday as the Saudis openly complained that Washington did not hit Syria and deceived, a military coup in Egypt, the US president to use retired. States are no longer seen by the Arabs as people who can solve problems, or at least help in solving them. New confirmation of this was "an Islamic caliphate."
It originated in Iraq in 2013 and soon spread to Syria devastated by war - and became the third force, which gradually began to push not only the Syrian army, but also to support the opposition in Arab countries antiasadovskuyu. But who will save him - Arabs to better understand the magnitude of the threat posed by the caliphate for them personally and for their countries' rulers? They themselves can not fight - all the Arab armies did not have combat experience, but on the side of fighting caliphate, first, the locals, and secondly - have actual experience, Iraqi and Syrian military combat, not to mention the "jihadists" around the world. No Saud and Jordan are in no hurry to send its army to fight in the Syrian and Iraqi soil - because they see how the Iraqi fleeing army of the Caliphate, or pass him or not wanting to fight. Where are the saviors? Where are the Americans?
They formed a coalition - that many Arab countries formally entered with them. But sending the army to the region States not want - first, another operation in the Middle East, the Americans did not sell, at least you can not make the current "peacemaker" Obama presidential. Second, and most importantly, US understood to be very bloody war, which requires actual combat with small and volatile military large, populated by millions of land units, and in circumstances where there are several opposition parties. It is a guerrilla war in its worst form - which would make the Americans in Vietnam - with no hope of victory.
And that's why the Americans bombed one year regularly caliphate - and the Saudis continue to arm the Syrian opposition, Assad expose almost the main reason for the growth of the Caliphate. The impasse - and neighboring Arab countries, and the United States do not want to lose the Middle East.
Who can win if not, then at least stop the expansion of the caliphate? Those who are at war with him - which is part of the Syrian army and the Iraqi people, with the support of Iran. But you have to stop the war in Syria between Assad and funded by the rebels and Western Gulf - to allow the Syrians do not want to live in the caliphate, to fight with him. The Russian plan, which promotes Putin, in fact, provides - Western and Arab countries should withdraw from Assad to groups in conflict to a peaceful solution. Their forms may be different, but the main thing - to stop the war between the two parties in Syria, so they can work together to continue against the caliphate. So if you work together with the Iraqi army you will have a chance if you do not put the genie back in the bottle, then at least reduce it in size.
What Russia sees its role? In fact, to convince the West and the Gulf to reconcile with Syria. To plan an operation to war with the Caliphate - not the Russian troops, and the Arabs themselves, which is required to put these weapons. If the Syrians and Iraqis will join other Arab countries - great, if not, it means that they will try to recreate their status. After all, this is their land, live in it - and no one else should not and can not be there to fight for them.
You can Americans do - ". Correcting mistakes" which have the main responsibility for what is happening in Syria and Iraq, and no one will believe, even if they are to ensure that only want They can not, and Russian - because It is alien to us the land on which some Muslim must understand the word sword or with other Muslims.
But the Russian could put weapons and advisers to plan operations and assist in the command - if asked to do the Arabs, particularly the Syrians and Iraqis. Help the rest of the international community - first, of course, the US military aid - will be welcome, if it is directed towards achieving a common goal, which is to win the caliphate.
Moscow does not have its followers in the region, and no imperialist interests - unlike the United States. Assad is not our man - he only has the support of many Syrians and protect their country from those who represent a threat to the inclusion of us, and on top of that he is our ally. We do not go to war in the region, not to the US or against US - We have deteriorating Greater Middle East concerns much more than the States, because in case of a new caliphate expansion directly affect our national security. Do not hit the positions of the region and not affect global dominance, as in the case of the US, and will be directly affected by our military ally in the Caucasus, in Central Asia, ie the historical Russia.
In this situation, wait for the Americans "will induce order" where all the hype, silly and ridiculous - even if you do not assume it is beneficial for expanding a fire scorched Russia and Europe.
Is it likely that Russia will force even the world, and work together "war for peace" Arab and Western countries? Of course - and although it is small, but it would be a mistake to try. Not to mention the fact that, even in their own work in this direction is already building our geopolitical muscles. And the recognition of our innocence - after all, the Arabs, and the Western geopolitical realist mentality understands what it takes to stop the Caliphate, not Assad. And if we do with the Arabs could agree, for the United States it will be a difficult choice between a test torpedo the Russian initiative and support.
It is hard to imagine the US We agree to say that they become an ally of his "enemy number one" in the war against "the enemy number two." It is clear that the United States collects the one-dimensional situation is - as an attempt by Russia to save his "Assad" and at the same time strengthen the influence in the region. Of course, in the case of a Russian plan for US actions in the region will fall - but that will happen in any case, especially when the further growth of the caliphate. US not displace Russia in the region (although it is clear that it is profitable for us) - and the situation itself, which had created.
In the first stage the best option for States could be to ignore the Russian plan - yes or no, let the Russian fail with their own projests. To this end, Washington would have to close your eyes to increase military aid to Damascus Moscow - but could not announce the rejection of the idea of overthrowing the Assad regime and the opposition to force a truce.
However, the unilateral implementation of Putin's plan to life is impossible - even if greatly increase the possibility that the Syrian army, who could not fight on two fronts.
Since Putin began to actively promote his plan in the last couple of months (following an agreement on Iran), all determined in the fall - in the course of numerous meetings at the highest level in New York (at the UN General Assembly ), Moscow (who visited the Gulf leaders) and Antalya, where in mid-November will host a summit "Big Twenty". At the summit in Turkey, near the Caliphate, Putin's plan in principle, can be the center of attention.
And all this time we have at home, in Russia, "fighters against the regime" will be as an institution that tries to confuse the heads of the people, in various ways, repeating his false-up "warning" of Putin "it gets into the trap of America, "" satisfied with Russia new Afghanistan "," drag the Americans fire chestnuts "," distract people from the war in Syria, to take the Donbass ". And all this "white noise" will have to accept stoically - though sometimes still want to get the answer to a simple question: what is - a banal stupidity or deliberate deception?
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