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The failure of the anti-terrorist operation
The analysis of the military situation.  Even though I was covered in detail in the 2008 Georgian attack on Tskhinvali and the subsequent reflection of the invasion of punitive Saakashvili, who tried to arrange the ethnic cleansing among the local population, but I never positioned itself as a military expert.
However, this does not prevent me to understand the inner logic of events, including the military. If you lift up my records for the middle of June, you'll see that I predicted the defeat of punitive grouping Kiev mode.

And it was not my arbitrary desire, caused by my personal sympathies to the militia, and the result of analysis of a number of facts and regularities.

I was silent, made no public attempt of analysis of the military situation, because I didn't want to even unwittingly give the junta. I'm talking not about all the factors that have influenced today's result (because some of them still work today, and some of them may come in handy in the near future). I will only say what you can and obvious.

Remark: places I can use the terminology of war-game, because it is convenient for modeling and well reveals the essence of the concepts.

Error 1. The junta constantly angered and provoked the locals to maintain separation from Ukraine and join the militia. At the beginning of may, almost nobody really wasn't going either to separate or to fight. Wanted more political and economic rights for the region, and the federalization of all quite satisfied. Even the original text of the question to carry on the referendum had not voiced office, and assumed autonomy within Ukraine. It was changed after 2 may.

But the atrocities of the Nazis in Odessa and Mariupol did its job, the people supported the referendum on separation by an overwhelming majority. Nobody in his right mind wants to live in a country where you can have with impunity to kill its citizens only for some political differences, and points are not referenda and other democratic procedures, and brutality and violence.

Error 2. Focus on Strelkova. As of mid-may, the militia in LNR consisted of a couple of hundred small arms. In Donetsk the situation with weapons was worse. Both cities it was possible to take rapid blows, but the junta is absolutely pointless focused on Slavyansk.

In principle Strelkova Kiev junta saw the main threat, and all the rest of it barauskas and corrupt habit tried to buy. Shuttles with suitcases of money and scurried from Kiev to Donetsk and Luhansk, but to no avail. When the leaders of the resistance could not buy - they tried to intimidate or kill. Putilina and Gubareva tried to blow up, and Bolotov was shot by a sniper. But too no avail. However, even the death of some of them have not been able to influence the processes.

In General, while Igor and his strelkovy "agrili" junta and Tankovo", assuming all combat power punitive grouping, as time went on. And it allowed the militia of both republics to begin to disarm the Ukrainian military units stationed on the territory of the republics, replenishing stocks of small arms. Also slowly in the punitive group "push-UPS" armor - a day for 2-3 units (I suspect that part of it just being bought or changed literally on food - soldiers almost weeks not fed).

At the same time created a training camp, where yesterday's miners and metallurgists coached future army Novorossia. And the junta with persistence of imbecile run and continued to break the walls of Slavyansk.

Error 3. Morale and motivation. Motivation militias high - they protect their homes, their families and loved ones. And every shelling of residential areas from the Ukrainian army, each bombing cities aviation made them only angrier and stronger.

The Ukrainian army had no motivation. Even cash - for 1500-2300 per month will climb only to die an idiot. Home movers or taxi driver can earn more.

As the results of the third wave of mobilization to fight "not bad". Volunteers virtually no plans for compulsory catching performed by 15-20% and with great difficulty, and all of Clara's Internet-punitive reason not rush to change the keyboard on the AK-74 (and sorry, I stare into the country would become less bloodthirsty virodene).

The battalions nationalists another problem - they are not very disciplined. They are well able to take part in punitive actions against defenseless to fight with the elderly and women, but in direct combat collision instantly fled, throwing weapons and equipment.

You cannot win a war, only firing at the enemy from afar (and not shooting positions militia, which came mainly from residential neighborhoods, where militias never was). You cannot win a war with an army that is afraid to go forward even when the five-tenfold numerical superiority.

Error 4. Disregard for its own people. In late may, I wrote that the region may be set in the militia more than 300 thousand fighters. Just at the same time to keep the host of this mass of people is expensive and pointless, so they need to perform rotation. Motorola can go to the Crimea in the honeymoon, and then return refreshed and policywise to continue to beat the Nazis.

Kiev junta decided that bigger is better, and a simple numerical superiority able to decide the outcome of war losers often think so, especially if they are small States). And created a punitive grouping more than able to fit out with uniform and feed. And all of them were held for several months without rotation, thus turning them into squeezed lemons even without direct participation in hostilities ("ideological" Nazis of any "Misanthropic Division" all this time actually rested in various spas, tanning and making BBQ).

In addition, the militia led every fight as accurately as possible (in addition to the Film, but the exception only proves the rule), to avoid even minimal losses. Each captured piece of equipment if this were taken to the rear, where it was thoroughly repaired and used only when absolutely necessary. But the junta has decided any combat mission, abundantly losing technique, mindlessly turning his soldiers in the bodies and ignoring the losses.

Error 5. Attempt environment throughout the new Russia. When I first heard about the plans junta to encircle the entire Donetsk-Luhansk agglomeration - at first I didn't believe in their stupidity, then exhaled with relief, and then laughed for a long time.

Donetsk-Luhansk Metropolitan area is the largest urban agglomeration. In fact, it is almost one continuous urban array, when between various formal urban places of less than hundreds of meters, and one city smoothly into the other (and if not for the signs, they would not have noticed). The perimeter of the Metropolitan area - more than 580 miles.

Apparently, kantowski the General staff (or whatever they have instead of the normal command) never heard of terms such as "density front. Otherwise a simple calculator would have told them that even if the magnitude of the punitive group 60 thousand people stretched around the perimeter in almost 600 kilometers it will create a density front is only about 100 people per kilometer. And, correspondingly, about 1-2 tanks and 1-2 artillery guns per kilometer.

And it is very small, and clearly not enough even to hold the front, not to mention offensive action, where the density of the front should be much higher.

Guys to know that you do not need to end military academies enough to read some good Soviet books on the history of the great Patriotic war, or at least to play any wargame type "Hearts of Iron" (by the way, I haven't played, I've read the books).

Error 6. Geometry and logistics. Moreover, the nature of such an environment on a number of factors hindered the rapid transfer of reinforcements in case of attempts to break from the militia.

First, move inside the perimeter shorter than to bend it around.

Secondly, moving on the territory of the agglomeration takes place on urban roads is relatively high quality. While moving along the outer perimeter in a large part is carried out in the fields, the hills (piles), through various ravines and gullies.

In fact, the junta in the choice of tactics of their actions was held hostage to their own lies. They've been lied to, that Russia supplies to the militia Novorossia the weapon that decided to try to cut these imaginary line deliveries (deliveries were, but only humanitarian food and medicine, but not tanks or the MRLS that it would be necessarily seen an American reconnaissance satellites).

Therefore, the junta took their punitive troops along the border, stretching them into a long sausage, which on the one hand, the militia, and on the other, the territory of Russia. And what you are doing with sausage? Her cut to pieces.

Error 7. Attempts to "divide and surround". The General staff of the junta gave no rest to the glory of the Wehrmacht, and they were making of themselves great strategists, creating an absurd plans to divide the Donetsk and Lugansk, and then do "sector sweep". Here you would have in a street fight to go between the two opponents, to make them easier to hit you from both sides? No, any sane soldier would be out of the line, holding all enemies in one sector. And these "geniuses" voluntarily climbed between two fires.

Error 8. The greed. Attempts to capture the "bigger and faster" never any good did not. However, I understand why the junta in a hurry - the default is closer, as run out of money, no one to fight will not happen.

Error 9. The porridge. Permanent haphazard mixing together different types of troops. For example, not wishing to fight the regulars were added to Promoscow, which led not to the fact that prowazeki pushed forward military (as was intended), and conflict and infighting (often with corpses). It also led to the decomposition of the units and the loss of their controllability.

Error 10. Emphasis on armored strike group. Tanks had entered the city without cover infantry, and it only leads to the loss of tanks. It is clear why it happened - infantry guards stupidly was severely dragila to fight in melee. From the Nazis make good punishers (if I may say so), but very poor soldiers. As the saying goes "Haraam scary".

Error 11. Emphasis on terrorist tactics (in the style of American "Shock and awe" and, most likely, just at the instigation of American military advisors). Russian man is not frightened when they destroy his house and kill friends and neighbors. He is angry, and very much. Therefore, each bombing attack aviation, each shelling residential neighborhoods Ukrainian artillery did not reduce the support of the militia of the population, but rather increased it.

Moreover, each shot only increased the total number of militia. And when even was flooded with a number of mines, unemployed miners was nothing else to do... well, you get the idea.

Error 12. An attempt to bring military success to a certain date. This always led to large losses. And Poroshenko really wanted to boast of military success at the parade on August 24. Boasted. Now gets a natural result.

And the last, the most fatal mistake No. 13. In vain you, Chlopy, generally climbed to the Donbass. And I'm still in may warned that no good for you it will end badly.

Of course, the real error junta much more. But some of them still work, why do you have to give working "feature"? So today you're done. Perhaps, after defeating the junta I find the time I will write a more detailed analysis, with details and reference to dates and locations.

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Video: The village of Stepanovka" the battle between the militia DND and Ukrainian law enforcers

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