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13:56Who will benefit from such a truce in the Donbass
Who will benefit from such a truce in the Donbass. Agreements
already supported by the international community, NATO, the US, the UN,
the OSCE. Positive evaluations coming from Russian official persons "In
Moscow hoped that all provisions of the document and the agreements
reached will be carefully executed by the parties, as well as on the
continuation of the negotiation process for full settlement of the
crisis in Ukraine", - said the press Secretary Vladimir Putin, Dmitry
However, the problem is that the document itself and the agreements reached so far not been published. The public knows only a few of his points, which moved all sides of the conflict and therefore did not cause much difficulty with coordination - for example, the ceasefire or the exchange of prisoners on the principle of "all for all". Reason for not publishing the plan can be many, but the most likely explanation lies in the fact that it has asked the Ukrainian side (as the one for which the most important opinion is your own public about the specific substantive content of the signed agreement).
Without sounding points of the plan to conduct a serious analysis of the signed agreement is difficult, but in General it is possible to determine what benefits and bonuses it carries each of the parties to the conflict.
So, for the Ukrainian side everything is ambiguous. In the short term will depend on whether the President Petro Poroshenko to convince the population that this agreement was a victory, because "Petro Poroshenko and the West stopped the aggression Putin to Ukraine". It will not be easy, because in Ukraine there are forces that will use a different interpretation: "President Hillary Clinton signed the capitulation, failed ATO and passed Donbass". Because the terms of the agreement have not been published, interpretation Poroshenko while in the priority - the President may even say that the Minsk agreement does not oblige him even to withdraw troops from the front lines. However, in the near future the situation may change - not only through the publication of the actual terms of the agreement, but also thanks to the implementation of already known items. So, the agreement involves the exchange of prisoners on the principle of "all for all", and it is possible that he will begin September 6. The problem is that the children of the captivity fighters of armed forces of Ukraine will tell the press about the failures of command, because of where they were in the boilers. And the command is defense Minister Valeriy geletey and the chief of staff Viktor Murzenko, which is called direct appointees Petro Poroshenko, Minister of internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, which is one of the "locomotives" of the electoral list, Block Petro Poroshenko. In addition, from the captivity will be released fighters volunteer battalions - ideological radicals, from which Petro Poroshenko, apparently, tried to get rid of, bringing them in boilers and leaving without support. It is not excluded that they will have serious questions to the President, until accusing him of betraying the national interests.
In the long term all too ambiguous. On the one hand, the armistice prevented a military disaster for Kiev - now Poroshenko have the ability to hold the rearmament of the army, recruit personnel, to deal with uncontrollable radicals and oligarchs, and then to continue the war after some time. However, the economic problems of Ukraine did not disappear. Moreover, if the ceasefire regime implies the preservation of the militia's control over the occupied territory and economic autonomy from Kiev, the situation for Ukraine could deteriorate, and by the winter of the country can expect serious political destabilization. Against which to talk about the independence of Donbass, or on the allocation of Ukraine throughout the new Russia will be easier than now, when the President has an opportunity to consolidate the society against external threats to the sovereignty and independence of the country.
As for the militia, from a tactical point of view truce for them, of course, disadvantageous. It was concluded in the time of the occurrence, when the Ukrainian units were drained and before the militia opened the prospect of capture of Mariupol and exit on the territory of Zaporizhzhya oblast. And now, of course, about the creation of the new Russia from Odessa to Kharkov possible for some time to forget. Probably, the adoption of such unfavorable conditions due to the fact that oppose Vladimir Putin leaders LNR and DND just could not. They only said that the signing of the agreement does not mean their return to the Ukraine. "We're going to continue the policy of disconnection. The ceasefire is a forced measure. We still have a lot of work", - said the Prime Minister Lugansk people's Republic Igor Carpentry.
On the other hand, the truce will allow them to prevent unfolding in the region humanitarian catastrophe. The DND and LNR will have time and peace to rebuild destroyed infrastructure, implement new humanitarian convoys (which will go in the next few days). Otherwise, for the winter republics serious depopulation and, as a consequence, the decrease in the mobilization base in case of renewed conflict with the official Kyiv - and that the battle for Donbass will continue, no doubt.
This militia has reserved the possibility to withdraw from the cease-fire at any given moment - DND representatives stated that the ceasefire will be cancelled when the "first shot" from the Ukrainian side. Despite the fact that the truce lasts less than a day, these shots have repeatedly heard and will be heard next. And, it is possible that the militia can use one of the episodes if they will allow Moscow.
And with Moscow's position is not entirely clear. Tactically, of course, plays a truce in favor of Russia. The Kremlin was able, apparently, to prevent the adoption of another severe sanctions from the EU, demanding "progress in Ukraine". It gave conditional Pro-Russian forces in Europe arguments in order not to spin on the orders of U.S. sanctions spiral. It is clear that further confrontation lose both we and the Europeans. This will also help to avoid a humanitarian disaster on its borders, which was fraught with instability and the influx of refugees. Besides, there is still a chance for the preservation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine with its further federalization. It is no secret that Moscow has advocated such a scenario, because in the long term it will result either in a single and neutral Ukraine, or in a civilized breakup of the Ukrainian state. Of course, this game carries certain risks, but if it is to lead properly and carefully, it can lead to very positive results.
However, on the other hand, Russia has given the chance Petro Poroshenko to preserve their power and it is unclear whether she received something in return. And to demand that Russia could a lot - up to the recognition of the status of Crimea and solve the gas problem. It is not excluded that Poroshenko under such conditions have signed up, and if he's going to break them, then Moscow can a truce to stop. Probably more detail about this can be judged on the basis of events that will occur in the coming days and weeks.
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